Will We Move from Cold War II to World War III:

An Update on Global Events

The world seems to be on fire, as we see constant headlines about one country readying for an attack on another and the world’s superpowers getting at each other’s throats (lots of rumors of wars). As I have been saying for the last couple months, we are currently experiencing Cold War II and may be on the brink of World War III. From eastern Europe to the Middle East to Africa to the South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, there are plenty of war fronts for political scientists and historians to analyze. Though World War III is not inevitable, we should be aware of the current events that may lead us there (if nothing else, you will be able to look back and say that you saw history happening right before your eyes and that you know how the catastrophic events could have been avoided).   

Despite the United States government and its puppet allies in Europe giving Ukraine billions upon billions of dollars in aid and weapons (more will be discussed in the aftermath of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with President Joe Biden to pitch the case that Russia needs to be stopped before it conquers all of Europe), the counteroffensive appears to be going nowhere. In fact, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested that the war might drag on for quite some time (I suppose a gradual war that kills thousands is better than a quick global war that kills millions or billions), thus increasing the amount of time available to lead us into World War III. The United States has nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey, ready to be used against Russia, and Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and has just added some to Belarus for potential use against Europe and American troops stationed there. The United States Navy previously had the USS George H.W. Bush carrier group patrolling the Mediterranean Sea, and now the USS Gerald R. Ford group is doing the same, in what seems like a never-ending effort to spark a misfire event. With a Russian fighter jet clashing with an American drone over the Black Sea, among other maneuvers, it appears as if the Biden administration is asking for a hot war with Russia. If the proxy war in Ukraine is not an indication of Cold War II, what would it take for us to get there?

But for every day that NATO engages in indirect war against Russia, using Ukrainians as cannon fodder, the closer we get to nuclear war. Many will argue that NATO acts as a deterrent to prevent such an event, but in fact, the reason that Russia has invaded Ukraine is largely because of NATO expansion and the West’s aggression toward it (Ukraine acted as a buffer and was Russia’s red line). Although Russia’s invasion is unjustified, we need to be aware of the reasons for it. Entangling alliances, along with nationalistic pride, helped bring about World War I and World War II, so the ultimate entangling alliance, NATO, may just get us into World War III.

In Africa, military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon, all of which were being exploited by the West for resources, have led to anti-imperialistic governments that have moved closer to Russia and China (trading one imperialistic force for another?). China has expanded infrastructure projects throughout the continent, and Russia has supported the Sudanese government (occupying a military base on the Red Sea), as well as had its Wagner Group support junta leaders in the Sahel Region. American, French, and European interests have now conflicted with those of China and Russia, so Africa is becoming the new battlefield of Cold War II, and this could potentially lead to a clash between superpowers.   

Amid a prisoner release from Iran, which saw the United States government unfreezing $6 billion in assets that it had stolen from the Persian nation (running contrary to the narrative that the Biden administration gave Iran cash), tensions between the two countries have not been great. Since Iran and Russia face a common threat and have had deteriorating relations with the West, both countries have gotten closer and formed an alliance. In fact, Iran has supplied Russia with drones in its war in Ukraine. On top of the economic sanctions, which were reimposed by the Trump administration and have not been waived by the Biden administration, there are constantly incidents between the U.S. Navy and the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard, especially in the Strait of Hormuz (begging the question of why American ships are patrolling the entire world, and particularly the Middle East). The United States government has enforced its oil embargo against Iran, including seizing ships with Iranian oil, and as a result, Iran has reciprocated and captured foreign ships containing other countries’ oil. Iran has always been a potential target for an American invasion, so it is not surprising that it would want to move toward a Russian alliance.

Another country getting friendlier with Russia is North Korea. Kim Jong-un has done his usual saber-rattling but domestic-strengthening rhetoric in response to American-Japanese-South Korean military exercises, and this time, he has warned that the United States is leading the world toward nuclear war and that he might strike first, if necessary. Although it is true that American imperialism includes the Korean Peninsula and that the drills are likely a preparation for an eventual invasion of the North, the dictator does not help his case when he launches missiles, including strategic cruise missiles, and conducts nuclear weapon tests, threatening South Korea and Japan. There is an easy diplomatic solution to be had, including ceasing American military drills in exchange for North Korea halting its weapons testing. However, both parties are too thick headed to want to negotiate peace, and because of this, a cold war scenario will continue to unfold. Given that China would come to the aid of North Korea if it were attacked, World War III could ignite from the peninsula.

China has been clear that Taiwan is part of its territory and that an eventual invasion is possible. The United States government will come to the aid of the island in order to protect the computer chip production facilities (not because it wants to help the people), which consist of 60% of the entire world’s semiconductors (and 90% of the most advanced ones). There is no way that American politicians would want to be responsible for losing easy access to computer chips that Americans rely on heavily for their daily lives (of course, many would not want those in the hands of China). As a result, the Biden administration has made it abundantly clear that it will engage in a direct war with China should Beijing launch an invasion of the island.

Well, President Biden may just get to go down in history as a wonderful war-time dictator, after all (if there is anything left for historians to record after nuclear annihilation), being that it appears China may be moving aircraft and ships toward Taiwan. Estimates suggest that 103 warplanes, of which forty crossed into Taiwan’s territorial waters, and nine (or ten) navy ships have been spotted aggressing toward the island (last week, China sent twenty-two aircraft and twenty warships to patrol the Taiwan Strait, with thirteen aircraft crossing into Taiwan’s territorial waters). Additionally, China appears to be sending forces and war vehicles to its coastal bases closest to Taiwan, and Taiwan is increasing its military readiness.  

These are provocative moves on the part of China, no doubt, however, when the United States sails ships through the Taiwan Strait or participates in “Freedom of Navigation” patrols throughout the South China Sea, we see it as a net positive, despite the fact that China views it as aggressive and a threat to its territorial integrity. Furthermore, the United States conducted tank and combat exercises on the island of Java with Indonesia, Australia, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and France; and this drill was seen as a threat to China (just like NATO is viewed as a threat to Russia, the new Indo-Pacific alliance is perceived similarly to China, and if China and Russia had alliances with and troops stationed in Latin America and the Caribbean Sea, we can guarantee that the American government would feel the same way). One wrong move can trigger a war, and the more ships that move through disputed waters and military exercises that are conducted, the greater the chances of a hot war erupting.

Moreover, there are indications that war between the United States and China is on the horizon. Aside from tabletop exercises simulating war between both countries in 2026 and 2027, we also see China stockpiling oil. Although the storing of the resource could just be the country taking advantage of cheaper oil from Russia and Iran amid American sanctions and a future shortage from the global pursuit of green energy, it could also signify that Beijing is getting ready to order a strike on Taiwan (massive amounts of fuel would be required to power its war machine and avoid inevitable sanctions that would be imposed). In addition, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall suggested that China is building up its forces in order to plan for a war with the United States. Clearly, China knows that if it invades Taiwan, it would mean an immediate war with the United States, so is China preparing for that scenario knowing that it will occur?

The world is not just dividing into two camps when it comes to military alliances. Economically, we see the development of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) bloc and the potential for it to create a new currency that challenges the supremacy of the United States dollar, which currently acts as the reserve currency for the world (global unit of exchange, especially in oil). The economic group consists of about 40% of the world’s population and about 25% of the global gross domestic product (GDP), compared to the 10% of the world’s population and 42% of global GDP of the G7 group (the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom). India, which is threatening to attack China because of border disputes, hosted the G20 summit in New Delhi, in which leaders assured the world that there was not a rivalry developing between the G7 and BRICS.

Separately, the United States is leading an effort to create a “ship-to-rail economic corridor” between India, the Middle East, and the European Union to challenge China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The main wildcard, though, is Saudi Arabia, which has traditionally kept the petrodollar strong and is supporting President Joe Biden’s economic corridor. It is, however, joining BRICS next year, along with Argentina, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran. It now appears that the American Empire is losing its status as the sole superpower on the planet, and if other nations challenge its supremacy, we may see a war break out.

World War III is certainly not inevitable, but we are seeing indications that it is coming. Will the Allied powers be able to negotiate with the Axis ones before there is nuclear annihilation, or will a clash become reality? We can only look at the signs and patterns and compare them with history to see how likely war is to erupt. There are certainly entangling alliances, rising nationalism, skirmishes and proxy wars occurring worldwide, and economic cliques forming; but only time will tell if this stays in Cold War II status or moves into the final chapter of the world war trilogy.

Thank you for reading, and please check out my book, The Global Bully, and website.