Another Front in Cold War II, Part II:
A Look at Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso
All of a sudden, we received word that some American personnel in Niger were being evacuated because of a coup that looks similar to events that occurred in Mali and Burkina Faso. What is going on in West Africa? Is Russia involved in turning the continent against the United States and Europe? Is the Sahel Region (transition zone between the Sahara Desert and the Sudanian Savannas) a new front in Cold War II (see my article on Sudan for more information)?
In order to prevent the expansion of terrorist networks in the region, the imperialistic ambitions of the United States government sought to keep Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso compliant with American interests. Niger received its first American troops in 2002, but after northern Mali became conquered by jihadi forces in 2011, the operation grew (up until recently, the United States had special forces in Mali to train with and provide intelligence and logistics to French troops). It appears almost like the introduction of American troops brought about more radical Islamist activity, which is the opposite of what was intended (this is nothing new in American foreign policy). By 2017, the United States had 800 troops in Niger to battle against al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, and Boko Haram. Today, there are 1,100 American troops and 1,500 French troops (Niger was a French colony, and slowly, France is losing its influence on the country).
Ally of the West, President Mohamed Bazoum, was overthrown by a military junta led by Abdourahmane Tchiani (former head of Niger’s presidential guard), and due to the instability, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has issued economic sanctions as a precursor to a military invasion (though, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Guinea have refused to cooperate). Secretary of State Antony Blinken is “pausing” some economic aid (“certain foreign assistance programmes benefitting the government of Niger”), and Bazoum is asking the United States to intervene and save Nigerien democracy, so we may soon see direct American military intervention (if there are not already counter-coup operations taking place now).
A conflict in Niger could spark war in other countries in Africa, and Mali and Burkina Faso have stated that an invasion of Niger would be considered an act of war against them (both countries sent a delegation of “solidarity” to the Nigerien capital city of Niamey). Even if the fighting is contained to just Niger, this could have larger implications for the geopolitical situation.
Russia’s Wagner Group (expelled to Belarus because of a supposed coup attempt against Vladimir Putin), which is already in Mali and Burkina Faso (and Central African Republic, Libya, Sudan, and Mozambique), is savoring at the opportunity to exploit the uranium-rich country (if it did not plan the coup). In fact, the Wagner-supported junta in Mali, led by Assimi Goïta (former vice president), hosted Nigerien General Salifou Mody to discuss the developing events and likely to sign a cooperation deal. Does this mean that the Wagner Group intends to expand its influence and militarily occupy Niger? Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group did just recently deploy 1,500 additional troops to Africa, though it is yet to be determined which countries.
Since American troops are housed in Niger and may become more involved, it seems to be playing out as a sort of proxy war between the United States and Russia (if the Wagner Group is still allied with Putin). One of the 2014 coup plotters against democratically-elected Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, now Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, was crying that she was losing grip on the African country, and she met with coup leaders to warn them of the “risks to their sovereignty” that the Wagner Group poses (yet, the United States has stationed troops there to exploit the resources for years). After blowing up the Nord stream pipelines and trying to get Europe off of Russian oil, the Biden administration worries that the takeover of Niger could threaten the pipeline that runs gas from Nigeria to Algeria, since the new government may become a Russian ally and cut off access to Europe.
As the Russian flags are raised in Niger and Burkina Faso, and it appears that the United States and France are about to get the boot, we must consider that Africa as a whole may be moving toward the Axis powers of Russia and China (both countries have heavily invested in the continent) and standing up against Western imperialism. West Africa seems to be transitioning politically, and even Guinea may be facing a possible pro-Russian coup. Mali and Burkina Faso already have.
In gold-rich Mali in August 2020, Assimi Goïta seized power from President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, and then after a semi-civilian government (the military babysat the events) was established under the leadership of President Bah N'daw, Goïta toppled that government too in May 2021 and established a permanent military junta (even though it promised civilian government to return to Mali by 2024, an invasion of Niger may delay or prevent such a thing). Burkina Faso also saw two coups within a single year, as Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba ended the six-year stability under the democratically-elected government of President Roch Kabore in January 2022, only to be ousted himself eight months later by Captain Ibrahim Traore.
As the Wagner Group gains influence throughout various countries in Africa, the United States and Russia (along with China) could be duking it out over Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Chad, as both parties compete for power and influence in the region. Is an independent Africa good for the world, or will these countries just replace one imperialistic force for another? What will happen next is anyone’s guess, but the geopolitical implications of Cold War II could have consequences beyond the borders of the countries currently affected.
Thank you for reading, and please check out my book, The Global Bully, and website.