Will the Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Erupt into War with Iran?

The Iran-supported Houthis are still waging their war against Israel by taking it out on international commercial shipping in the Red Sea (claiming that all ships attacked have ties to Israel, including ships bound to and from that country), and it is now at the point where the United States has issued an ultimatum to the de facto government of the northwest portion of the civil war-torn Yemen in a final attempt to end the conflict. Back down or face the wrath of the American Empire. Will this high seas drama escalate into a war against Iran? One thing we can bank on is that the Biden administration will not deescalate the situation and will likely resort to airstrikes in Yemen in due time.

In fact, the United States and United Kingdom are considering bombing Houthi-controlled regions, and of course, if this were to occur, it would hardly be the first time that Yemen was on the receiving end of American bombs. In fact, President Barrack Obama used George W. Bush’s precedent of drone strikes in any country and at any time, with no congressional authorization, to attack Yemen 185 times, killing approximately one hundred civilians (Bush had launched his one and only attack in Yemen in 2002). This undeclared war against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) began largely after the failed 2009 Christmas Day Bomb Plot (Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s underwear incident), continued through Yemen’s Arab Spring and the Obama administration’s assassination of an American citizen, Anwar al-Awlaki, and ramped up after AQAP increased operations as a result of the Houthis taking control of mass amounts of the country in 2014 and 2015. Donald Trump then built on what he had learned from Bush and Obama and continued drone strikes against AQAP to the same proportion as his predecessor (more in the initial year but fewer as time went on), though possibly killing fewer civilians in his less-restricted warfare (data is still incomplete).

Although, Joe Biden has only conducted four airstrikes in Yemen so far, his administration has fought in that country in other ways. As I mentioned previously, the United States Navy has been eliminating missiles and drones utilized by the Houthis to terrorize the Red Sea. However, on December 31, 2023, when a Singapore-flagged ship was under attack by four Houthi ships, American helicopters fired upon and sank three of the boats, killing ten Houthi fighters. So, ultimately, the focus has now turned from targeting AQAP to a naval conflict against Houthi-controlled territory (where Saudi Arabia, with support from the United States, had slaughtered civilians and blockaded access to supplies in a years-long bombardment).

Additionally, the United States has attempted to put together another sort-of “Coalition of the Willing” or Red Sea force to combat the Houthi fighters, who have decreased the number of commercial ships through the Red Sea by twenty to twenty-five percent and forced many of them (five entire companies have pulled out of the region) to take the longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope and near Cape Town, South Africa (12% of all global trade goes through the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, and Israel has suffered economic trouble, as its port city of Eilat has lost 85% of its activity). “Operation Prosperity Guardian” (really an expansion of the already-existent Task Force 153, which was created in 2022) consists of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Seychelles, Bahrain, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, and Norway; and interestingly, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates refuse to join, while Spain, France, and Italy are hesitant to give up sovereignty by having their forces under American control (they support an operation to protect ships from Houthi attacks in theory, just not an American-controlled one). Additionally, several other countries have decided not to join because they fear retribution from Iran or the Houthis for perceived support of Israel. Will the fracture between United States allies cause the coalition to break down? Even if so, the Biden administration will continue waging indirect war against the Houthis, one way or another, to free the waterway from obstacles. It is not in the cards for the Biden administration or its allies to abandon unconditional support to the Israeli government, so sabotage of commercial shipping will likely endure.

The Houthis may be hindering the West’s ability to support Israel’s unjust bombing campaign in Gaza, which has seen approximately 23,000 Palestinians dead and two million displaced (in retribution for an attack that killed 1,200 Israelis). Although Hamas has committed horrendous terrorist attacks and chosen to make life difficult for Gazans, Israel’s military, which is one of the most powerful and well-trained in the world, has the capability to reduce civilian casualties through special operations, and yet, it chooses instead to bomb the strip into oblivion.

However, what we are seeing now is a possible escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, especially given this week’s Israeli airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon (one killed a Hezbollah commander and another eliminated a Hamas fighter) and Hezbollah’s attack against an Israeli sensitive air traffic base. Aside from the fact that it is now confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) utilized American-provided white phosphorous munitions, which are really nothing less than chemical weapons (the United States has used them in Iraq), to intentionally clear out a town in southern Lebanon in an October attack (trapped civilians reported having respiratory issues due to the munitions); Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has announced that his government may soon launch a full-scale war against Lebanon to push back and destroy Hezbollah (Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel to stand in solidarity with Hamas and Gaza, so it is understandable why Israel might want to take some action, but again, special operations would suffice). Interestingly, some in the Biden administration not only want to prevent an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, but they believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be looking at a preemptive strike as an attempt to keep his country unified against a common enemy so that he can escape domestic consequences at home (he is facing corruption charges, is attempting to alter the judicial system for the purposes of consolidation of power and the ability to escape accountability, and is being investigated for his failure to stop the October 7 attack, which his intelligence officers clearly knew about beforehand).

Whatever the reasons are, all roads lead to Iran, since the Persian nation funds and supports (but does not direct) both Hamas and Hezbollah and is attempting to weaken Israel’s power status in the Middle East. The usual war hawks are out trying to convince Americans that a war with Iran, which has a quarter of the population of and two-fifths of the quantity of active-duty troops as the United States, would be a good thing. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who would wage war on every non-compliant country on earth if he had the chance, said, “Without Iran there are no Houthis. The Houthis are completely backed by Iran. I have been saying for six months now...hit Iran. They have oil fields out in the open, they have the Revolutionary Guard headquarters you can see from space. Blow it off the map.” Yes, Senator Graham, let us go to war with Iran, risk World War III, and kill millions of Americans in the process. Good strategy. So far, the Biden administration has been aggressive toward the Houthis and the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, which has attacked American bases in Iraq and Syria over 100 times since October 7 (the United States military has retaliated with airstrikes in both countries), but not so much so that a hot war has broken out.

If the Israel-Hamas, Israel-Hezbollah, and American-Houthi conflicts erupt into a full-scale war between the United States and Iran, as Israel would prefer in order to potentially eliminate its rival power in the region, it would be catastrophic, and Americans need to put pressure on government officials to avoid such a conflict. If there is no appetite for war and Americans are not willing to sacrifice their lives on behalf of a nation thousands of miles away and in a conflict that could easily be avoided, war would be difficult to justify and wage. We have enough problems in the United States, and we do not need to further engage in another one of our plethora of failed military adventures overseas.

Thank you for reading, and please check out my book, The Global Bully, and website.