Civil War in NATO

Will Turkey Leave the Alliance?

After British journalist Keir Simmons went to the ground in Crimea and became convinced that many of the people there wanted to be part of Russia and that Sevastopol was too strategic of a port for Russia to give up, he was reportedly put on Ukraine’s terrorist watch list. Of course, reporting on the fact that Russia will defend the peninsula is considered a crime by the authoritarian Zelensky regime, but what is even more interesting is that the Ukrainian government still believes that recapturing Crimea is possible (without the complete destruction of Russia). Just like many experts believe that, despite Vladimir Putin’s clear red line over Ukraine not joining the roster of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), bringing the “breadbasket of Europe” into the alliance is realistic.

Yet, even adding the two less controversial and previously neutral nations into NATO seems to be a hassle. In fact, Hungary and Turkey (are you hungry for turkey?) have been playing political games to prevent the unanimous expansion of the alliance to the Scandinavian countries of Sweden and Finland. Since having an unanimous vote on the matter is required for additional members, the United States has been attempting to convince Hungary and Turkey to acquiesce to the terms of a deal.

NATO has been expanding eastward toward Russia’s border for many years, despite promises made by former Secretary of State James Baker and others that this would not occur (or, at least this is what leaders in Russia were led to believe, and misleading a global power is still unjustified). It is no surprise why Putin has behaved the way that he has over the last several years, as the United States would not tolerate a Russian alliance, with troop movements, expanding from South America up through Guatemala and Belize and Cuba and the Bahamas. Mexico, right on the American border, would be a red line for subsequent administrations, and yet, we act like it should be perfectly acceptable for NATO to consume Ukraine.

One of liberals’ favorite fascist leaders, in the form of Prime Minister Viktor Orban (just like President Donald Trump ascending to the White House, the Left does not like when right-wing populist leaders gain power), can easily be bullied into compliance through economic maneuvering in the European Union; but Turkey is something entirely different. Just over one month ago, when Turkey decided to suspend a brokered deal (over a burning of the Koran in Stockholm) that would ease its apprehensions of Sweden and Finland joining the alliance, the United States and its puppet state of Germany issued, without evidence, consulate closures and travel and security warnings, which helped to halt the Turkish economy that relies on tourism. The Biden administration already destroyed Germany’s pipelines in the Baltic Sea (an act of war against an ally), so why not bully another NATO ally into compliance?

Although the truth of Turkish opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO may ultimately be because of economic reliance on Russia, the stated reason is because of Sweden’s support for the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey, as well as the United States and Sweden, considers a terrorist group. Turkey would like Sweden to release militants seeking asylum in Scandinavia, but even though Sweden has said that it would not do so, it, along with Finland, did agree to crack down on PKK activity within its borders.

Turkey has condemned the United States for supporting the PKK, through the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PEJAK), to destabilize Iran and the Assad regime in Syria; and this conflict has led to the Turkish military destroying targets of the American-allied Syrian Democratic Forces, which comprises of Kurdish fighters. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (the Raytheon arms dealer to Ukraine) has scolded Turkey over the attacks, and this has led to strained relations between the two countries.

What is the United States still doing in Syria, now that the Islamic State (ISIS) has been largely defeated? Well, it has to take out Bashar al-Assad through proxies, duh. The Biden administration has been holding on to the economic sanctions started under the presidency of Barack Obama; and after the devastating earthquake, which killed roughly 47,000 people, along the Turkish-Syrian border, the Department of Treasury decided to waive the sanctions for six months. Wonderful, so you deprived the innocent Syrian people of crucial supplies for years, but now, it will be acceptable to pause the food and medical starvation for the sake of humanitarian relief. The sanctions have not deterred Assad or prevented him from waging war against the rebels, and it is pathetic that politicians and bureaucrats in Washington can sit on their high horse and determine what type of supplies the people are allowed to receive in their own country.

One positive that has come out of the earthquake is that it may end up easing tensions between Turkey and Greece (“earthquake diplomacy” has a history of doing this between the two countries). Territorial disputes in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas and the Greek militarization of several islands have brought the two countries to the verge of war. In addition, Greece is trying to convince the United States to halt arms and aircraft transfers to Turkey, which would damage already diminishing relations between the NATO allies; but if military conflict erupts between Greece and Turkey, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has suggested, it would be devastating for NATO.

Because Turkey may be on the verge of war with fellow NATO member Greece, has been fighting against Kurdish independence and exchanging fire with American allies, and has been getting closer to Russia economically; Turkey may eventually leave the alliance and move toward the axis powers in a future World War III scenario. Or, perhaps Erdogan will capitulate to American interests and end up playing ball on the expansion of NATO. Will Turkey continue to be a wildcard in the current global order?

Thank you for reading, and please check out my book, The Global Bully, and website.